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Coronavirus patients can infect 406 people in 30 days if not isolated, reveals ICMR s

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Old 04-08-2020, 08:45 AM
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Default Coronavirus patients can infect 406 people in 30 days if not isolated, reveals ICMR s

ICMR recently conducted a study on the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic to get statistics on the outbreak. Health Ministry official Lav Agarwal quoted the study recently. He said that if Coronavirus patients are not treated, or if they donít self-isolate, they can infect about 406 other people in 30 days. In basic medical terms, this phenomenon is termed as R0 (R naught). It is a virusís basic reproductive number and a metric used to describe contagiousness.

However, if preventive measures are taken in time, this number can be brought down from 406 to 2.5 in the same period, said Agarwal. He added the R0 figure for Coronavirus is somewhere between 1.5 and 4.

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“If we take the ‘R0’ to be 2.5 then one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days if the lockdown and social distancing measures are not in place, but if social exposure is reduced by 75 percent then that one sick person will only be able to infect only 2.5 persons,” stated Agarwal. He hence, highlighted why the 21-day lockdown was necessary.

Using smarter technology, cities are using predictive analytics to monitor movements of the Coronavirus spread. This includes using heat maps and geo-fencing, mentioned the official. Further, he added that cluster containment strategies are producing positive results, especially in Agra, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Pathanamthitta, Bhilwara and in East Delhi.

Agarwal went on to add that the government has built three kinds of centers exclusively for COVID-19 patients. The first kind include COVID-19 care centers for suspected cases and mild cases. This will include converting schools, colleges, and hotels to quarantine facilities. These areas will also have one hospital in the vicinity that can recommend more patients to similar care facilities.

The second kind is dedicated to Coronavirus health centers for cases that have been showing moderate symptoms. These facilities will have separate hospitals or a dedicated block in hospitals. These will also have separate entry and exit points. All beds in such facilities must have an oxygen support system.

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Critical cases and aging patients are sent to the third kind of dedicated to Coronavirus hospitals. Full hospitals or dedicated blocks in these hospitals will have separate entry and exit points. Again, all beds must be equipped with oxygen support systems, along with ventilators and ICU facilities.


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